Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 3.731436 4.367541 5.071276 5.906456 6.869468 7.943887 9.232325
2025-10-19 2.751524 3.606563 4.654611 6.028523 7.776488 9.919942 12.741018
2025-10-26 2.100280 3.028338 4.267659 6.031604 8.463555 11.682133 16.245211
2025-11-02 1.608822 2.520804 3.832487 5.835971 8.793287 12.966541 19.261764
2025-11-09 1.240208 2.094075 3.406409 5.540346 8.884940 13.876180 21.820585
2025-11-16 1.011770 1.826970 3.156341 5.441306 9.216658 15.132713 24.998306
2025-11-23 0.845844 1.624764 2.965830 5.390325 9.591950 16.471255 28.430875
2025-11-30 0.760206 1.543415 2.958735 5.634640 10.470981 18.699672 33.533899
2025-12-07 0.659660 1.413464 2.841061 5.659216 10.961979 20.320881 37.783962
2025-12-14 0.571316 1.289269 2.711390 5.636473 11.354368 21.800283 41.931977
2025-12-21 0.501286 1.188507 2.608998 5.646336 11.800260 23.411530 46.473296
2025-12-28 0.486092 1.202470 2.738254 6.132580 13.222139 26.968683 54.972835
2026-01-04 0.443092 1.148051 2.720465 6.322402 14.096085 29.616779 62.104612
2026-01-11 0.404913 1.097982 2.705049 6.517079 15.009871 32.452750 69.930710
2026-01-18 0.359950 1.022219 2.619338 6.543229 15.568253 34.635172 76.681947
2026-01-25 0.307634 0.916482 2.445429 6.339840 15.593630 35.714207 81.271335
2026-02-01 0.257394 0.805064 2.237946 6.022889 15.315467 36.109613 84.446598
2026-02-08 0.224820 0.735731 2.124145 5.916672 15.511423 37.553333 90.033550
2026-02-15 0.198911 0.680056 2.036251 5.861834 15.821552 39.281254 96.422018
2026-02-22 0.188483 0.669387 2.068507 6.126243 16.953866 43.010347 107.721956
2026-03-01 0.170524 0.630774 2.015791 6.152867 17.484014 45.376160 116.079429
2026-03-08 0.152995 0.589546 1.948371 6.128281 17.877189 47.452559 123.953274
2026-03-15 0.138520 0.555397 1.896118 6.138953 18.365443 49.810599 132.734647